Reports say Trump has no easy options to end the war, with gold and silver plunging straight down. Institutions: Still need to strictly control positions.

On the afternoon of March 26, spot silver experienced a short-term plunge, dropping over 1% to $70.51 per ounce, after previously rising by 1.75%. At the same time, spot gold fell below $4,500 per ounce. On March 25, gold and silver surged before retreating, with spot gold once breaking the $4,600 mark.

In terms of news, the situation in the Middle East, which is under close watch, remains uncertain. According to CCTV News, on March 25 local time, the U.S. side is trying to arrange a meeting this weekend in Pakistan to discuss the “exit plan” for ending the U.S. military involvement in Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif stated that the U.S. has been frequently communicating with Iran through a third party recently, but this is merely “information exchange” and not formal negotiations.

Additionally, on March 25, Iranian state television reported that Iran has reviewed a 15-point plan proposed by the U.S. aimed at ending the war, deeming the plan “excessive and unrealistic.” Iranian state television also cited a senior official stating that Iran insists that this war can only end on Iran’s terms and timeline. According to the Central Television’s correspondent in Iran, Li Jiannan, the five conditions for Iran to end the war are: the enemy must stop military and terrorist actions against Iran; create objective conditions to ensure that the war does not recur; guarantee the payment of damages and war compensation, and clarify responsibilities; the enemy must completely cease military actions against the “resistance front”; and Iran should have the relevant legal rights to exercise sovereignty in the Strait of Hormuz, both now and in the future. Sources indicate that a ceasefire will only occur if the other party accepts Iran’s conditions; no negotiations will take place before that.

The Wall Street Journal reported on March 25 that U.S. President Trump recently expressed to his advisors his desire to “quickly” end the war with Iran, aiming to conclude hostilities “in the coming weeks.” The report cited informed sources saying, “As the conflict approaches nearly a month, the president privately informed his advisors that he believes the war is entering its final stages, urging them to follow the (4 to 6 weeks) timeline he publicly proposed when the conflict began.”

The report stated: “The problem is that Trump does not have an easy option for ending the war; peace negotiations are still in the early stages. In discussions with external political allies, his attention occasionally shifts to other issues, including the upcoming midterm elections, decisions regarding deploying immigration enforcement personnel at airports, and pushing Congress to tighten voter eligibility legislation.”

Huaxi Securities pointed out that gold volatility has significantly increased and position sizes need to be strictly controlled. Gold implied volatility has continuously climbed to 35 since last Thursday, which is at a historically high level of 99.4% since 2009. The background is that gold has entered a rapid decline phase, waiting for volatility to decrease. From a longer-term perspective, the medium- to long-term logic supporting gold still exists: on one hand, with the acceleration of changes in the geopolitical landscape, the marginal credibility of the dollar is weakening, and the underlying logic of global central banks’ “de-dollarization” has not wavered; on the other hand, the scale of U.S. debt continues to rise, and the dependence on loose monetary policy remains high, so there is no basis for a trend reversal in gold. The recent sharp correction in gold prices is more of a deep correction after prior excessive increases, and it is expected that subsequent bottoming and recovery will require a longer time. A new round of gold market action may need to wait until expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut are reignited.