【BlockBeats】On December 25th, an interesting data release occurred—faster-than-expected economic growth brought about changes, and CME's observation data shows that the probability of a rate cut in January 2026 has significantly converged.
After this data was released, the leading candidate for Federal Reserve Chair, Harker, made a direct statement. He believes that the foundation for growth still comes from three factors: falling prices, income growth, and improved market sentiment. He also did some calculations: if GDP growth remains around 4%, new employment is expected to return to a range of 100,000 to 150,000 jobs per month. But he was also straightforward—he openly stated that the Federal Reserve is clearly lagging behind the trend on rate cuts.
However, there is a key detail. The economic growth in the third quarter was mainly due to a rebound caused by the clearing of inventory backlog and trade disruptions, which actually masks the larger trend of weakening employment margins. With employment becoming a core policy consideration and the selection of the Federal Reserve Chair gradually being finalized, the market