Bitcoin Bottom-Fishing Indicators Collectively Malfunction, $45,000 May Be the Final Line of Defense

Bitcoin has reversed direction again after eight consecutive daily gains, continuing to decline from $76,000 and currently trading around $69,200. For players eager to buy the dip, the biggest confusion is: how did those previously reliable indicators suddenly stop working?

The Ahr999 index has been lingering in the bottom-fishing zone below 0.45 for nearly 50 days. In the past, this would have been time to enter with eyes closed, yet the market keeps falling. The MVRV Z-Score isn't faring any better either. Previously, touching negative values meant golden opportunities, but this cycle only reached a low of +0.26, and the so-called "green zone" never appeared at all. The STH-SOPR staying below 1 for an extended period has set a record since October last year, displaying typical bear market characteristics, yet shows no signs of reversal.

What's the problem? Simply put, Bitcoin's pricing logic has changed. Since the spot ETF approval, institutional holdings, derivatives arbitrage, exchange settlement mechanisms, and even U.S. macroeconomic monetary policy have become the dominant forces influencing prices. Those traditional indicators based on on-chain address behavior have had their foundational assumptions completely shattered. The MVRV Z-Score's denominator has been artificially inflated by ETF holdings at scale, Ahr999's mean reversion logic appears powerless against liquidity contraction, and SOPR shows no genuine panic capitulation because long-term holders have such thick unrealized gains.

So what should we be looking at now? The industry is beginning to shift focus toward several indicators that better fit the current market.

CVDD, a model developed by analyst Willy Woo, tracks Bitcoin's cumulative holding weights across different price ranges, constructing a "historical iron floor" curve that has never been breached. In December 2018 and November 2022, the market approached this line twice and witnessed reversals both times. Currently, CVDD's iron floor is shown around $45,000.

The NUPL indicator measures the net unrealized profit/loss across the network. Falling into negative territory typically signals fear or capitulation, serving as a potential bottom signal. The last time this occurred was from June 2022 to January 2023. Currently, this value remains around 0.2, suggesting that chip washing hasn't been thorough enough.

Stablecoin exchange net inflows may be the most direct leading indicator—price rebounds without stablecoin inflows are merely leverage-driven technical bounces. Currently, USDT and USDC continue to bleed out, with some distance remaining to the true bottom.

Viewing comprehensively, the market may be in an awkward stage: the valuation bottom has appeared, but the capital bottom and sentiment bottom haven't arrived yet. What needs monitoring going forward is whether CVDD's $45,000 iron floor defense holds, and when stablecoins begin to flow back in.

Buy when no one cares, sell when everyone is talking. When even your barber Tony starts asking you how to buy Bitcoin, that's when you should think about exiting. #Gate13周年全球庆典 $ETH ‌$BTC ‌