#May Market Outlook

Bold Statements for Bitcoin: "Selling in May" May Be a Mistake!
There is a classic rule for crypto investors: "Sell in May and go away." However, the situation of Bitcoin in 2025 may challenge this traditional approach. While weak performance is generally observed in the summer months in traditional financial markets, there is ongoing discussion about how Bitcoin will perform in May. Various indicators and analyses suggest that this May could tell a different story for Bitcoin. Here are 4 reasons why the idea of "selling in May" could be a big mistake this time.

The Connection Between Bitcoin and Global M2: Bullish Signals in May
M2 is an indicator that shows the total amount of money circulating in the economy and has historically exhibited a strong correlation with BTC. M2 includes cash, savings accounts, and liquid assets, and typically, BTC prices rise during periods when central banks increase the money supply.

A Kaduna analyst predicts that the relationship between Bitcoin and M2 will continue in 2025. The rise of M2 could be a positive sign for Bitcoin, and price increases are expected in May. Unlike traditional financial assets, Bitcoin may respond more sensitively to such economic factors, which gives investors hope for May.

Historical Data and May Performance: Bitcoin's Strong Rise
Looking at past data, Bitcoin has provided an average return of 7.9% in the month of May over the last 12 years. Although there is generally volatility in the market during the summer months, it is noteworthy that Bitcoin usually performs positively in May.
Bitcoin's positive performance during this period shows a stronger increase, especially when compared to months like June and September. Data indicating that Bitcoin has experienced 9 green Mays and only 6 red Mays since 2010 suggests that the demand for Bitcoin has increased in May, and that buying instead of selling could be more profitable.

Introduction to Bitcoin ETFs: Institutional Investors and Strong Demand
Bitcoin ETFs are becoming one of the traditional ways to invest in cryptocurrencies. The growing interest in spot BTC ETFs, in particular, indicates that large investors are turning to Bitcoin. The fact that major investors like BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) have provided a net inflow of over $970 million in just one day is increasing interest in Bitcoin.

The approval of Bitcoin ETFs is an important development that could drive up the price of Bitcoin in 2025. This effect indicates that institutional investors may accelerate their shift towards Bitcoin, suggesting that there could be further price increases in May. While ETFs provide investors with easier access to cryptocurrencies, they may also lead to greater ownership of Bitcoin by larger investors.

The Connection Between BTC and Traditional Markets is Weakening: On the Path to Becoming an Independent Asset
Historically, Bitcoin has shown correlation with traditional stock indices. However, recently, it appears that Bitcoin is moving increasingly independently from traditional markets such as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. This allows Bitcoin to be regarded more as a value on its own.

Analyst arndxt states that Bitcoin's such independence moves could herald a strong rise in May. This indicates that Bitcoin is creating a new trend under the current market conditions and suggests that buying more would be more profitable than "selling in May."