Analysis #BTC before the release of important macro data: is a correction possible?

The BTC chart shows a strong upward trend, reaching a local maximum around $96,800. However, ahead of the release of key macroeconomic data from the U.S. — Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) and the unemployment rate, concerns about a potential correction are increasing. These concerns are supported by the technical picture and market sentiment.

📉 Fundamental risks

Unemployment Rate (Unemployment Rate ) — forecast: 4.2%, previous: 4.2%Any value above the forecast will indicate a deterioration in the U.S. labor market, which may heighten recession expectations, even if the Fed becomes more "dovish."

Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) — forecast: +130K, previous: +228KThe decline in the number of new jobs is another negative signal, especially if the actual value is noticeably lower than the forecast.

If the data turns out to be worse than expected, it may raise concerns among investors and reduce risk appetite - including for assets like BTC.

📊 Technical analysis of BTC ( chart )
1. Strong resistance:
BTC has approached the round level of $97,000, where profit-taking and a decrease in growth momentum are observed.

2. Formation "double top" (Double Top):
The chart shows a potential reversal pattern indicating a weakening of buying pressure. If the support level around $95,000 is broken downwards, a acceleration of the decline can be expected.

3. MACD and RSI ( by context):
Although they are not indicated in the image, it is likely that the RSI is in the overbought zone, which also signals the likelihood of a correction. The MACD is likely preparing for a downward crossover.

4. Volumes:
It is visually evident that during the current rise, volumes may have decreased, which confirms the weakness of the bulls at the top.

📌 Key levels

Resistance: $97,000 — a psychological and technical barrier

Support 1: $95,000 — the nearest important level

Support 2: $92,500 — previous local maximum

Risk zone: A break below $95K amid bad news is a signal for a deeper correction.

💡 Withdrawal
BTC is at a critical point. The resilience of the current trend will be tested on May 2 at 12:30 (UTC) after the release of the U.S. labor market data. From a technical perspective, the asset is overbought and may be ready for a correction.

If the news turns out worse than expected, there is a high likelihood of a downward movement with the first target around $92,500–$90,000. In the case of positive surprises, the market may reach new highs, but the current picture indicates an increased risk of short-term decline.