#精品内容  The expectation of a deal between the US and China is giving Bitcoin a safe haven role.

The possible price reaction of Bitcoin to a trade deal between the US and China could provide clues as to whether Bitcoin is being used as a safe haven asset in the current market.

Bitcoin BTCUSD outperformed stocks during the sharp sell-off in stock markets in April following the tariffs announced by Donald Trump on “Liberation Day”, and crypto investor “Analysts” observed “incredibly strong” on May 11.

Bitcoin, which fell to $75,000 on April 7, showed a strong recovery to $95,000 by the end of the month, increasing by approximately 27 percent. Meanwhile, indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experienced declines in April.

At the time, people wondered if Bitcoin’s relatively strong performance was due to the narrative that countries were using Bitcoin to bypass tariffs. The analyst said that theoretically the opposite should happen if the trade deal is confirmed.

“Theoretically speaking, if trade uncertainty is what made BTC superior, it should no longer be superior once we reach the most important deal involving China.”

Bitcoin performance since Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement.

On May 11, the White House announced that “substantial progress” had been made in talks on a trade deal between the US and China. However, a formal agreement has not yet been announced.

“We will have the details tomorrow, but I can tell you that the discussions have been productive,” US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said.

However, if Bitcoin continues to perform, “it is safe to assume that the tariffs have no direct impact on how BTC is handled or used,” the report concluded.

Markets await trade deal announcement

However, some analysts believe that Bitcoin will likely rise as a result of a trade deal and possible rate cuts.

“As US-China trade talks near the end and the possibility of a rate cut increases, institutional investors are becoming less cautious about investing in Bitcoin and crypto,” he said.

“A US-China trade deal could signal stability in global markets, prompting investors to look for growth opportunities and shift capital to alternative assets. This could also propel Bitcoin to new highs, especially if the deal weakens the dollar or re-introduces liquidity to emerging markets.”

Only a solid trade deal announcement could sustain the current momentum. “This is the first time that momentum has started to falter here locally; it feels like a real, concrete announcement from China is needed to get things moving.”