#BTCPriceAnalysis

The current parabolic rise of gold serves as a model for the next phase of the leading cryptocurrency’s movement, according to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise. He shared his insights on the matter.

Hougan’s analysis is based on the structural differences between the two markets. Since 2022, central banks have become the dominant buyers of precious metals. Their consistent purchases have been the main catalyst for the asset’s 57% rally since the beginning of 2025.

Bitcoin does not enjoy comparable demand. Primarily, the cryptocurrency’s price support has come from spot ETFs and corporate treasuries. Hougan believes this fundamental difference explains why gold is rising while the flagship of the crypto market consolidates.

However, the mechanism is the same: when a large, stable buyer entered the gold market in 2022, many price-sensitive investors began to take profits. Their sales initially restrained the growth, and only after this pool of sellers was exhausted did the rally begin.

Hougan believes a similar scenario is possible for Bitcoin as the available supply for sale diminishes.

Since their inception, exchange-traded funds based on digital gold have accumulated over 1.5 million BTC—several times more than the coins mined by miners in the same period. The expert emphasized that this gap should have already pushed the cryptocurrency’s price, but it is currently held back by sellers.

If purchases by ETFs and corporations continue at the current pace, and the available supply for sale shrinks further, Bitcoin will break out of its narrow range and surge upward, noted the Bitwise investment director.

At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading around $108,100, having decreased by 0.4% over the past day.