Today, let’s review the recent market trends from the macro to the micro perspective.

Disclaimer: This is purely a personal review and reflection. The views are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.

First, there’s a saying we need to remember: In a bull market, never call the top; in a bear market, never call the bottom.

We need to update our views and trading strategies in a timely manner based on the current market conditions. Essentially, it’s about adapting ourselves to the market environment, rather than expecting the market to adapt to us.

The reason why the recent market is extremely difficult to operate in is:

First, many long-term indicators have started to become ineffective, and it takes time to find new indicators that can adapt to the current market conditions.

Second, the proportion of smart participants among existing market users is much higher than before. In this round, it’s almost a game played among smart people, with very few “dumb money” retail investors left.

Third, most smart participants have similar consensus about the market. For example, previously everyone saw 85,000 as a bottom, now they’re looking at 75,000 or 76,000, with 70,000 as the extreme bottom. When consensus becomes too strong, the market often does not go the way these people expect, so we may see many frustrating moves designed to shake out these positions.

So, looking at the current market, you either play it safe and stay out altogether, or use small amounts to follow these smart players with your orders—maybe even place your bids a bit lower than theirs.

Monthly timeframe

Weekly timeframe

Daily timeframe