#数字货币市场回升 Recently, the market has experienced a pullback of more than 30%, and many people are starting to call out that "the bull run has ended." Don't panic - comparing it to the bullish trends of 2017, 2021, and this time in 2025, you will see a completely different scenario.

This time is a bullish policy combined with bullish liquidity, completely different from the previous two times. The time in 2017 was the last celebration before regulations were enforced, while in 2021, organizations bought at the bottom after the ban and drove prices up. And what about 2025? The US first embraces and then enters a civil war; currently, it is just the end of the honeymoon phase of the policy with normal profit-taking, capital is shifting to avoid risks, and ( gold during this period is really more attractive than ). A pullback of 30-35% is part of a healthy correction, and it has not yet reached the level of structural collapse.
Looking back at history, whenever some regions "suddenly loosen up", it is a signal for large funds to enter - before the date of September 4, 2017, and after the ban in September 2021, this rule has been confirmed. The policy of loosening personal ownership in September 2025 will play a similar role. What truly determines the depth of the next bear market is whether the US will fulfill its commitment to buy "strategic Bitcoin reserves" in 2026, and whether the Federal Reserve can continue to loosen. If these two conditions occur, the likelihood of a further drop of 30-50%(, reaching a bottom of 5-6 million dollars) before the end of the correction, and starting a new cycle in 2026-2027.
Regarding the system collapse with a 77% drop in 2022? Currently, the probability is less than 15%. That time was caused by the collapse of lending platforms leading to a chain reaction, this time it is not a bullish trend from worthless coins of retail investors, nor is there large-scale leverage accumulation. The most likely scenario is a pullback of 50-65% similar to 2018/2022, after which the next super cycle opens up thanks to the US Treasury buying BTC with real gold. This bull run is not dead yet, it has just shifted from "Trump bull" to "gold bull" to attract attention.