$ETH The current position is quite awkward, to put it bluntly, it's a standoff between bulls and bears.

Take a look at the recent trend—on November 29, the price surged to the range of $3048-3065 but couldn't break above it, then slid down to around $2990 where it's currently fluctuating. It's evident on the 4-hour chart that the price is below the moving averages, and a bearish engulfing pattern has formed. There is some bearish momentum, but it's not that strong. However, one point to note is that the range of $2620-2650 held up quite well during the pullback in November, serving as a psychological bottom. Although the MACD is leaning bearish, its strength is diminishing.

The liquidity situation is even more delicate. Recently, there has been money flowing into the Ethereum spot ETF, but the overall spot market is still experiencing net outflows. This contradiction prevents prices from rising or falling. Additionally, with the 20-day moving average at $3115 and the 50-day moving average at $3481, there are pressure points above, making it difficult to turn things around.

The key lies in two positions: if the line below at 2960-3000 USD is broken with volume, it is highly likely to head straight for 2870-2900 USD or even deeper; if it can break through 3048-3100 USD with volume above, then the short-term weakness may reverse, targeting 3160-3200 USD.

⚠️ At this stage, don't rush to invest heavily.