Last week, I helped my fren review his account and saw that he opened a Full Position with leverage the day SOL surged to 210 dollars last year, and within three days, he got liquidated for 2.8 million.

It wasn't until he flipped through his transaction records that he realized the MACD histogram in the K-line chart had already shrunk—the red bars were getting shorter, like a candle burning down to the wick, but all he could think was "just wait a little longer to take profit," completely ignoring this signal.

This reminds me of the survival logic I realized after losing 1.5 million back in the day: a top divergence is not metaphysics; it essentially means that funds are retreating in advance.

Last year, when ETH rose to 4200 dollars, the price was hitting new highs every day, and the market sentiment was pumped to the max. I was watching the red bars of the MACD turn from thick to thin, and at 2 AM, I forcefully liquidated my position— the next day, it dropped straight through 3600. A few old friends in the group complained to me, saying they couldn't bear to sell, and ended up getting their positions cut in half.

Conversely, a bullish divergence is a signal to buy at a discount.

This year when APT dropped to $8, the whole internet was criticizing "trash copies". I went to check the weekly chart and found that the price hit a new low, but the green energy bars were half as short as the last time it dropped. Looking at the on-chain data, there was a giant whale address buying a steady 5 million U daily.

I built my position in three batches, adding each time it drops by 5%—just like the mindset of not daring to stock up too much when there's a sale at the supermarket. As a result, APT rose back to $18, not only recovering my costs but also making an extra profit.

There's another pitfall to avoid: don't rush in just because you see a golden cross; that's just a "tentative move".

The last time a golden cross appeared on the PEPE daily chart, I noticed that a certain exchange's hot wallet moved in and out 20 million USDT, with funds coming in and then running out, like testing the water temperature. Sure enough, three days later, it dropped by 20%. Genuine reliable opportunities require waiting for a second golden cross—especially when both the 30-minute and 4-hour lines cross simultaneously, and trading volume suddenly surges; that's when the odds of success are higher.

Lastly, let me say something straightforward: MACD is not a fortune-telling tool; it is a mirror for observing the flow of funds.

The profit in my account right now is not from betting on a big win, but from controlling my hands every time I see something off with the energy bars. I never exceed a 5% full position on my first trade, just like keeping the trial and error costs within an affordable range.

The ones who survive in the crypto world are never the most daring, but those who are best at reading signals and know when to retreat.

I have fallen into pitfalls before, and now I'm sharing my experiences— the road is beneath your feet, will you follow?