S&P 500 just broke a 198-day streak above its 50-day moving average—the longest run since 2007. After hitting 6,890.89 on Oct 28, the index has dropped 5.1% and is now trading below the key technical level for the first time since late April.

Here's the thing: Historically, this isn't necessarily bearish. Following the previous three similar streaks since 2007, the S&P 500 averaged +8% over the next six months. Even the 2007 streak ended months before the actual market peak in October.

BUT—and this is a big but—the Shiller P/E ratio is sitting at its second-highest level ever, second only to the dot-com bubble peak. Weak macro signals are piling up too: flat job growth, sliding consumer sentiment, rising auto loan delinquencies.

The bottom line? The 50-day MA breakout isn't a red alert by itself, but combined with sky-high valuations and economic uncertainty, expect rougher volatility ahead. It's a "watch and wait" moment, not a "sell everything" moment.