At the end of the year,重大消息来自华盛顿——新一届Fed主席人选即将揭晓，这个看似常规的人事任命，实际上正牵动着全球Capital Market的神经。

The current version circulating is: Hassett and Walsh are in the final race. These two names represent completely different monetary policy directions. Hassett previously served as the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in the previous administration, and his policy inclination has always leaned towards easing. If he takes the helm, the market may see more liquidity released, which is usually a positive signal for risk assets. Bitcoin has historically shown strong upward momentum in such an environment.

But Waller is completely different. As a member of the Fed, he has repeatedly expressed concerns about inflation in public, advocating for stricter monetary discipline. Once he is elected, a tightening of dollar liquidity is almost a certainty. Recall a few years ago when then-Fed Chair Powell merely signaled a hawkish stance, Bitcoin plummeted more than 20% within 24 hours.

What is more subtle is that this uncertainty itself is creating volatility. Sources reveal that discussions internally regarding the two candidates are still ongoing, which means that any sudden public statement could trigger a strong market reaction. High-leverage traders are particularly vulnerable during this time window, as a single piece of news could trigger a chain of liquidations.

From a trading perspective, what is needed now is a clear risk management framework, not emotional betting. If the trend ultimately leans towards easing, then allocating a certain proportion of mainstream digital assets is reasonable; if tightening becomes a reality, cash is king and buying on dips may be wiser.

History has shown that policy inflection points often give rise to the greatest opportunities and risks. Smart participants are not swayed by short-term noise but instead focus on fundamental logic—the actual actions of the Fed are always more important than speculation. At this critical juncture, maintaining calm observation and preparing multiple contingency plans is the correct posture to navigate through volatility.