#数字资产市场观察 has shown an intriguing phenomenon in the current trend: the technical indicators continue to weaken, but the funding aspect shows signs of inflow. This divergence often indicates that market sentiment is brewing a change.

First, let's look at the market structure. The overall long and short position ratio in the market maintains a delicate balance of 49% long to 51% short, but if we look closely at the data from various platforms, the short positions in some major derivatives exchanges have risen to 71.6%. What does this number indicate? Institutional players are clearly leaning towards a bearish positioning.

The signals on the technical level are more direct. The MACD technical indicator has formed a death cross, with the DIF line running below the DEA. The price repeatedly tests but cannot break through the recent resistance level formed. Each upward attempt seems to provide the bears with a better entry opportunity.

Interestingly, the capital flow data shows that there is an inflow of funds, but the price performance is quite weak - it can't rise. This "volume-price divergence" occurs during a downtrend, and experience tells us that it might be large funds using rebounds to hedge positions, rather than genuinely increasing their long positions.

Looking at the liquidation data: In the past hour, the scale of long position liquidations reached $241,200, which is 3.3 times the amount of short position liquidations. This disparity reveals a harsh reality - during the decline, the bullish investors chasing the price are quickly exiting.

From an operational perspective:
- The current price around $350 can be considered for a tentative short position.
- If it rebounds to the $357-$363 range, this would be an ideal position for building a position in batches.
- It is recommended to set the stop-loss level above $373; once it breaks through, it indicates a qualitative change in the trend.
- Downward targets can focus on $338.30, $320.71, and in extreme cases, $298.00

The market never declines in a straight line. Those seemingly attractive rebounds may just be to create more room for a larger drop. Before the trend is clearly defined, any signals of capital inflow need to be verified in conjunction with price action.

Trading is essentially a probability game, and what we need to do is to find the side with a higher winning rate.