The strategies I set up a while ago have been running pretty smoothly lately, mainly because the US finally released over a month’s worth of pent-up economic data, giving the market a sense of direction overnight.

The government shutdown lasted 43 days, which held up all the key data—investors and the Fed were basically walking a tightrope blindfolded, with no way to judge the real state of the economy. Yesterday, the November manufacturing data finally came out, and the two core indicators, PMI and ISM, gave the market a clear signal. To put it simply, numbers above 50 mean expansion, below 50 mean contraction. The ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.2, even worse than last month’s 48.7, and it’s been falling for nine straight months. Details like employment and new orders are also declining.

In plain English: the US economy is kind of “stalling.” An economic slowdown will force the Fed to cut interest rates—lower borrowing costs give companies some breathing room and push deposits to flow back into the market. Right now, Wall Street generally believes a 25-basis-point rate cut in December is basically a done deal, with some institutions putting the odds at over 80%.

This is a real positive for Bitcoin. Previously, during the data vacuum, market sentiment was like a roller coaster, and crypto prices swung wildly. Now that the dust has settled and rate-cut expectations are clear, the signs of liquidity easing are stronger than ever. History shows that every time the Fed enters an easing cycle, crypto assets tend to react early. At this stage, it might actually be the perfect window to position—once the rate cut actually happens, it might already be too late and you’ll just be chasing the top.