Looking back at the market of the same level in 2022, the market first experienced a prolonged period of gradual decline and consolidation, with a cumulative drop of about 50%. After stabilizing and forming a bottom, it then saw a rebound of approximately 46%. The overall volatility at that time was indeed higher than it is now.

Meanwhile, relevant assets also saw a synchronized oversold phenomenon.

Recently, I often review that period’s price action, because in terms of price structure alone, the current pattern bears a high degree of similarity to that period.

However, compared to the previous 50% decline, the current correction is about 36%. If we extrapolate proportionally, assuming the market follows a similar structural fractal, the potential rebound target this round might be near 108K.

Both market phases were hindered by a long-term descending trendline, and a true trend reversal rebound only occurred after an effective breakout above this trendline.

Therefore, I have made some adjustments to my trading approach: first, patiently wait for the market to consolidate and rebound, and only consider deploying long-term short strategies or grid layouts after the price steadily holds above the 100K level.

Back in 2022, I misjudged due to a false breakout within the range and entered a heavy position, ultimately taking a significant loss when I stopped out. Although this cycle may not completely replicate history, it's typical for the market to enter a wide-ranging consolidation after a trending move, and I expect this pattern to continue.
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