#ETH走势分析 Good evening, everyone. There’s been a serious backlog of DMs these past couple of days—it seems many of you are feeling confused by this market action. While I have a moment, let me break down the current situation so you don’t end up seeing a chorus of complaints later on.

Let’s review this week’s rhythm. Monday’s contrarian setup played out beautifully—$BTC dropped from 84,800 to 84,000, $ETH from 2,800 to below 2,720, and the shorts smoothly captured a 1,000-point profit on BTC and 80 points on ETH. Afterward, the market found support at the weekly level and bounced on the daily, with BTC pushing up to the 94,000 resistance area and ETH touching the 3,050 level before pulling back. At this point, I bet a lot of people started to relax: Is the bull market back? Are the bears done?

Don’t jump to conclusions—let’s look at the data first.

While this rebound did set a new high since 80,600 (which definitely changed a lot of people’s minds), I think it’s too early to call a reversal. The market is still under the shadow of liquidity panic, and there are three pieces of evidence:

First, ETF inflows and on-chain activity are nowhere near bull market standards, and fear still dominates the market.

Second, prices at these highs are facing strong resistance from previous bearish trendlines, and the overall structure is still controlled by the bears.

Third, there’s obvious tug-of-war between longs and shorts on the 4-hour chart, with moving averages under pressure at key levels. Combining these with the previous two points, the odds of this rally continuing are extremely low.

Based on this, the strategy going forward is actually quite clear: favor the downside at current prices and manage your risk—add to $BTC shorts above 93,000, set stop-losses 1,000 points above the previous high; $ETH is similar, use 3,160 as your defensive line.