Recently, I noticed a pretty interesting comparison.

Thinking back to 2021—the Fed first stopped expanding its balance sheet, then raised interest rates, and then directly started shrinking the balance sheet. USDT to RMB also surged from 6.3 all the way to around 7.3. The result? Altcoins entered a long bear market.

Now, looking at this year’s trend: USDT to RMB dropped back from 7.3 to around 7. Coincidentally, on December 1, the Fed officially stopped shrinking its balance sheet, started cutting rates one after another, and there’s a good chance of balance sheet expansion in the coming months. All these signals point in one direction—the US monetary policy is shifting from tightening to easing.

If altcoin markets are really closely linked to dollar liquidity, then the altcoin bull run that we seasoned players have been waiting for might really not be far off.