2025-12-04 16:50:31

#数字货币市场洞察 Keep an eye on two time windows—December 10, when the Fed will announce its interest rate decision, with a considerable probability of a third rate cut; and December 19, when Japan might raise interest rates. With one tightening and one easing, the global liquidity game will change.

Looking at the technical side: yesterday’s quick dip and sharp recovery was a classic bull shakeout. Remember this—the big surges and crashes are illusions; real trends don’t move that fast. Now, the 4-hour W-bottom has formed and the neckline is holding.

If there’s a pullback before the rate cut, it’s actually an opportunity to go long. The market usually only really drops when no one dares to go short. $BTC $ETH

BTC-3.45%

ETH-3.93%

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ColdWalletAnxiety

· 23h ago

I saw through that pin bar move a long time ago—classic shakeout tactic to scare retail investors. --- These two windows in December are definitely crucial, but I'm more concerned about where the funds will go after Japan raises interest rates. --- Double bottom formed? Come on, if that's the case, we could have a double bottom every month—I can't buy it. --- Positioning long before a rate cut pullback? Easier said than done—to actually buy the dip when the price drops is another story. --- A real drop only happens when nobody dares to short. But with so many bullish voices right now, what does that mean? --- Feels like every time someone emphasizes "the real trend won't be this sharp," they end up getting caught by a rapid rebound. --- I've heard "the liquidity game has changed" way too many times, but people still end up getting rekt.

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0xSoulless

· 12-04 17:13

It’s always about needle drops and double bottoms, I’m just numb to it now. In the end, it’s always the whales eating meat while we get the scraps. If there really is a rate cut on the 12th, we’ll just be waiting to get rekt. On the day Japan raises rates, I bet five bucks there’ll be a big crash, and then you’ll all say, “See, I knew it all along.” Going long? Bro, I’m not setting up anything—this market is no different from gambling now. Remember, so-called technical analysis is always hindsight talk. The ones who really make money are those with inside info. A dip before the rate cut is an opportunity? Nope, that’s just a trap for the retail traders.

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BackrowObserver

· 12-04 17:02

No matter how deep the dip goes, it still has to bounce back—that’s just the rules of the game. Only after a shakeout does the real rally begin. Wait, is Japan really going to raise rates? Then the dollar might start sucking up liquidity, so who’s going to save BTC then? Is the W-bottom holding? I don’t buy it—could break this afternoon. I’m betting on the pullback before the rate cut; if I lose, so be it, but if it goes up, I’ll make a killing. Honestly, what worries me most is that everyone’s waiting for that pullback, and instead, the market just skyrockets. Japan raising rates and the Fed cutting—if that combo lands, global capital flows could get chaotic. Hard to say where ETH will go. Long squeeze? Looks more like a bear trap to me. Anyway, I don’t believe the wick is the bottom.

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BearMarketSurvivor

· 12-04 16:58

This analysis is okay, but I'm still a bit uncertain about the Fed. Whether there will actually be a third rate cut in December still depends on the data. The rate hike in Japan could indeed shake things up. I've seen this kind of "needle drops and then pulls back" scenario many times. Every time they say it's just a shakeout, but there are plenty of times when it drops again halfway through. As for the 4-hour W-bottom, I need to check the candles myself—I don't really trust it. A pullback before the rate cut could indeed present an opportunity, but after surviving the bear market these past few years, I've learned one thing—greedy people never laugh until the end. I'd rather miss out than get dumped on.

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