The macro environment is pretty subtle lately. The Fed’s expected December rate cut is still on the table, and the market is waiting for the dust to settle. Liquidity has improved somewhat—thanks to a large-scale debt buyback by the Treasury, and the QE program is wrapping up.

Ethereum just completed the Fusaka upgrade, which has improved network efficiency and lowered Layer 2 costs—a substantial positive. But if you look at the prediction markets, investor confidence in Bitcoin breaking $100,000 by year-end has already dropped from 60% to 24%, showing that sentiment is definitely cooling off. Globally, there are some mixed signals as well, like Japan’s government bond yields suddenly spiking and risk-off sentiment flaring up from time to time.

**Bitcoin’s Current Situation**

The key level to watch is 93,500. This price is both the yearly opening and the high that previous rebounds failed to hold. If it breaks through with volume this time, the weakness since mid-April could be over; if it keeps stalling here, it’ll likely keep oscillating between 90,000 and 93,500, or even test support at 90,000 again.

**Ethereum is Relatively Stable**

The technicals look much healthier. It’s held above $3,050, which has now become a support level. Next, let’s see if it can break through the 3,350–3,500 resistance zone. Of course, this recent strength is due to the upgrade and ETF inflows, but with such a rapid move up, be on guard for a short-term pullback risk.

**How to Trade**

Right now, Bitcoin is suited for range trading—buying low and selling high between 90,000 and 93,500. If it struggles near resistance, consider shorting; if it stabilizes near support, look for short-term long opportunities. For Ethereum, watch to see if it can break 3,350—if it does, keep an eye on further upside potential.