Bitcoin’s recent price action has really left a lot of people confused.

Supply is shrinking, there’s no sign of massive selling pressure, so by all accounts, the price should be stable, right? But now, it looks like the $100,000 level can’t hold, and all kinds of “bear conspiracy” theories are flying around. But the truth might not be so dramatic—this drop actually stems from the US Treasury’s “wallet.”

Sounds far-fetched? The logic is actually pretty straightforward. Washington is currently deadlocked over a government shutdown, and the Treasury has over $150 billion in cash just sitting there, unable to be released into the market due to procedural gridlock. That’s no small sum—it’s basically siphoning off a huge chunk of market liquidity.

How sensitive is the crypto market to changes in liquidity? It’s like a river during a drought; as the water level drops, boats run aground. Institutions were considering whether to increase their positions, but suddenly there’s way less “active money” in the market, turnover efficiency tanks, and no one dares to make a move. As a result, buying dries up and selling pressure feels even heavier.

This isn’t panic selling—it’s just price compression caused purely by a liquidity drought. Institutional money is staying out, retail investors get nervous watching the slow bleed, and once that negative feedback loop forms, the price falls like dominoes.

Bottom line, the core issue in this round of correction is a macro liquidity problem. The key variable for whether Bitcoin can regain its footing may be when the Treasury’s cash finally gets released back into the market. No matter how strong the technicals are, if there’s no money flowing in, it’s all for nothing.