#比特币对比代币化黄金 Last night, the USDT to RMB exchange rate shot past 7.0, causing quite a stir in the community. Some people started to question whether stablecoins are still stable, while others were anxious to know if they should quickly convert their USDT back to fiat. But to be honest, what you should really be paying attention to isn’t the USDT price itself, but rather the signals hidden behind this volatility.

Take yesterday, for example—ETH surged 10% in a single day, and those who caught this move must be grinning from ear to ear. Yet, there are still people fixated on the exchange rate, worrying endlessly—aren’t we in the crypto market to earn coins?

This round of USDT price fluctuations is actually the result of two forces at play simultaneously.

First, on the macro level, expectations for a shift in Fed policy are growing stronger. If the rate-cut cycle really begins, looser USD liquidity is almost a sure thing. When that happens, the dollar will weaken, other currencies will appreciate, and stablecoin exchange rates will naturally shift as well. This is the logic of the broader environment—it’s unavoidable.

Next, let’s look at domestic regulation. Recently, the central bank and multiple departments jointly announced that stablecoins are clearly defined as a type of virtual currency and emphasized a crackdown on related illegal financial activities. This basically shuts down certain gray channels directly. With demand being suppressed, USDT’s price naturally comes under pressure.

What’s interesting is that, faced with the same situation, people react in completely different ways.

Newcomers are worried sick about whether their assets have shrunk, itching to liquidate and exit immediately. Meanwhile, seasoned veterans who’ve weathered the market for years are already calculating arbitrage opportunities—stocking up on USDT at lows and cashing out at highs. This kind of exchange rate volatility is itself an opportunity window.

Those who truly survive in this market are never the ones led by price movements. They focus on capital flows, policy intentions, and market sentiment mismatches. There’s more volatility in a bull market and stagnation in a bear market, but in any phase, the people who make money are always those who can see the big picture and manage the rhythm.

USDT breaking 7 might not be a bad thing—in fact, it could be the starting point of a new market cycle. The real question now isn’t whether you should panic, but whether you’re ready to respond.