The recent movement of gold is quite interesting. When I open my trading software, I see that the gold price’s candlestick chart is even steeper than many altcoins, which brings back some not-so-pleasant memories.

It’s not about being envious for not buying gold, but rather that this kind of surge feels all too familiar—historically, every time gold skyrockets, major troubles usually follow.

Gold is a global asset bellwether, and its unusual volatility often signals something. Looking through historical data, you’ll find that gold’s super bull markets are almost always accompanied by financial crises. In the bull run from 1971 to 1980, gold prices rose 20-fold, coinciding with the 1974 global financial crisis. The bull market that started in 2001 was even more dramatic and lasted until 2011, with the 2008 subprime crisis fueling that rally.

The pattern is clear: the crazier gold climbs, the greater the market’s fear of uncertainty. This is quite similar to the crypto market—Bitcoin’s surges are either driven by major positive news or by investors seeking a safe haven, worried about issues in other assets. The logic is the same.

Right now, what really deserves attention is not the gold price itself, but the US dollar. If the dollar runs into trouble, the crypto market won’t be immune. If the dollar repeats the sharp devaluation seen in 1971, gold will definitely keep flying, and Bitcoin’s "digital gold" safe-haven property will be repriced by the market.

It’s hard to predict exactly how much it will rise then, but the volatility will surely be significant. The market is never short of opportunities; what’s lacking is a healthy respect for risk. At this point in time, watching more and acting less might be the wiser choice.