The Ultimate Deduction on the Future Crypto Market:

The 4-year cycle theory may be failing. 🌪️

We are standing at a historical inflection point of “crossing the chasm”:

1️⃣ 75% probability: Entering the “early majority” stage. The market matures and becomes linked to macroeconomics and fundamentals. ➡️ Consequence: The classic 4-year halving cycle disappears, and a long bull market begins.

2️⃣ 20% probability: Still in the “early adopter” phase. ➡️ Consequence: We’ll experience another 1-3 years of exploration/bear market, and the 4-year cycle remains effective.

3️⃣ 5% probability: Fall into the chasm, never achieve mainstream adoption. ➡️ Consequence: Becomes a pure PvP (player vs. player) gambling arena.

Why am I betting on the 75% chance? Just look at a16z’s 2025 report:

✅ Traditional giants are entering: Visa, BlackRock, Fidelity, JPM.
✅ Infrastructure is mature: Blockchain TPS > 3400, gas fees have dropped significantly. ✅ Capital volume: Stablecoin annual settlement volume reaches $46 Trillion.

In the past, we relied on “self-fulfilling expectations” and “narratives” for hype; in the future, we’ll be driven by “real applications” and “macro cycles.”

While the PvP casino still exists, it’s no longer the mainstream of the industry. The world is irreversibly moving onchain (Coming Onchain).

If you still don’t get it, you might miss out on the most exciting decade ahead.