2025-12-06 04:21:14

What does a real rebound look like? First, there needs to be a back-and-forth grinding process at the bottom, with sufficient turnover of positions and the main players accumulating enough coins. Expecting a surge without this stage? Stop dreaming.

I've seen too many people trading crypto based on news, like the Fed cutting rates or some country's favorable policy, analyzing everything in detail. But in reality? The market never follows the script. When you think it should go up, it falls instead. When you think it should drop, it just moves sideways.

What's the core issue? Treating your own subjective expectations as the market direction—this is just self-hypnosis. The market only cares about capital flows and the distribution of positions; your opinions are worthless.

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HorizonHunter

· 9h ago

It sounds harsh, but who the heck can accurately judge a bottom during a grinding phase? I’ve seen tons of people guessing the bottom, only for it to get smashed through. I’ve given up on news-based analysis—only after losing money did I understand. Chip distribution really is key here, but how can you truly see through it? Other people’s opinions are worthless, but your own opinion is valuable? That’s a bit extreme. I just want to know how to tell if the major players have really accumulated enough. Seems simple, but in practice, it’s insanely hard.

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RektCoaster

· 9h ago

Talking about bottoming out again—yeah, it’s not wrong, but I’m tired of hearing it. The key is, who the hell can actually catch the bottom accurately? News-based trading stopped working ages ago. Are there really still people trading crypto based on FOMC? Wake up, everyone. I can’t make sense of chip distribution anyway. My money’s already distributed into the exchange’s cold wallets. The real bottom is when everyone is in despair, but the problem is that when that happens, you’re broke too and can’t buy the dip. Relying on subjective expectations to trade crypto is like racing against bots with your brain—you’re bound to lose.

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tx_pending_forever

· 9h ago

Haha, got slapped in the face too many times. Now just waiting for the bottom consolidation, let's see who still dares to chase the news hype. --- To put it bluntly, it's just greed. Always want to hit the target in one shot, but end up getting wrecked. --- If chips don't switch hands, but you still dream of a big pump, that's some thinking... --- Subjective expectations are the original sin. I've also fallen into the trap of self-hypnosis. --- Capital flow is the only truth; everything else is nonsense. --- Those watching the news should be losing pretty badly now, serves them right. --- Wait for a thorough shakeout at the bottom, otherwise it's all for nothing. --- The market loves to go against your expectations. I've seen through it long ago. --- Only when the chips are sufficiently rotated will I get in. I'm not taking the bait from previous bull traps.

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PositionPhobia

· 9h ago

Well said. The more thoroughly the bottom is consolidated, the farther the rebound can go. You can't rush it. News really doesn't matter; I still rely on candlestick charts. When it comes to chip turnover, the main thing is to watch capital flows. Don't let public opinion sway you. People who chase the news every day basically always lose money—it's common sense. Signs of major players accumulating are the clearest; repeated bottom volatility is just them collecting chips. I stopped believing in the whole Fed rate-cut narrative a long time ago; the market has its own logic. My own opinions aren't worth much—capital flows are the real truth. A big price surge is the result, not the beginning. There has to be a quiet accumulation phase. Those who pay attention to chip distribution generally do pretty well. Those who watch the news all day deserve to get stuck. The consolidation phase at the bottom is crucial—it's the big players' game. Trying to make money based on expectations? Sooner or later, you'll lose it all.

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LightningClicker

· 9h ago

Grinding at the bottom is indeed a necessary process, but the real challenge is resisting the urge to take action—that’s the real test. Well said. News traders always end up getting burned; I just watch them confidently analyze and then get slapped by reality. I agree about the chip rotation, but the real question is how to tell if the main force has accumulated enough—that’s the real skill. Instead of guessing the market direction, it’s easier to just look at the capital flows—saves trouble. I just want to ask, how can you really tell if it’s bottom consolidation or if the decline will continue? Looking for some guidance. I’ve heard “this time is different” too many times, and it always ends up the same—bad. Subjective expectations are the most harmful; I’ve fallen into that trap several times.

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