The extension plan for the 22 Vanke MTN004 bond has finally surfaced—the principal and interest, originally due on December 15, will simply be postponed for a year, with neither principal nor interest paid in the meantime. Of course, creditors are not having it and have added two proposals, with their core demands being very clear: either pay the due interest first, or provide some real collateral or credit enhancement measures.

To make matters worse, two rating agencies have almost simultaneously announced the termination of their ratings on Vanke and its bonds. To put it nicely, it's called "terminating the rating," but in plain terms, it means the credit situation has deteriorated to the point where it can't be rated anymore—if they had to assign a rating, it would likely plunge straight from the former AAA to junk status. That contrast is too stark, so the agencies simply withdrew.

Now, with Vanke's bonds losing their ratings and its stock price sluggish, there are still people claiming this is just "short-term pain." In my view, many who talk about short-term pain simply don't want to cut their losses after getting stuck in their positions. As early as the beginning of last year, the risk signals were already clear—back then, the stock was still at 9 yuan, and I really wonder how many people managed to get out in time.

Shenzhen Metro is now clearly pulling back on its rescue efforts, instead pushing Vanke toward a market-based resolution. The message behind this is clear—most likely, they've realized the internal problems at the company are far more severe than expected. The recent investigations into senior executives further confirm this indirectly. Although Vanke still has hundreds of billions in assets on paper, which seem to have potential value, the current stock price has long overshot, and the actual value is probably far less than it appears.