#ETH走势分析 Recently, I went through the monthly retracement data for BTC over the past few years and discovered something interesting.

Look, in a bull market, a healthy pullback is usually in the 30-40% range. If it really turns bearish, it needs to drop over 50% to really count. And now? The deepest retracement so far has been 36%. Not too much, not too little, right at that subtle threshold.

The time dimension is even more interesting—previous corrections of this scale typically took about three months to play out, and we're only about halfway through now. So I judge that for the next month or so, we're likely to see the bottom continue to fluctuate, with the range repeatedly tugging between 75,000 and 88,000. The rate cut window in December is pretty key: if it happens, we could see an upward breakout; if nothing happens, we might dip below 80,000 again.

To be honest, looking at just the December rate cut alone, it can't determine the long-term trend. Rate cuts will have to continue sooner or later, and next year the momentum will only get stronger, with even more intense market reactions. That previous high at 126,000? I definitely don't think that's the end. If things move fast, we could see another solid rally in Q1, or Q2 at the latest.

Even if, worst case, we really do enter a bear cycle, history says after three straight months of declines, we should get a rebound, right? Can't let that kind of opportunity go to waste. $BTC $ETH $BNB