There are 30 days left until December 19. That meeting in Tokyo could become the biggest "time bomb" of the year.

The focus is simple: Will the Bank of Japan end the era of zero interest rates? The market puts the probability of a rate hike at 82%. Three months ago, that number was only 30%.

Why is the whole world watching this event? Because over the past decade, almost everyone has been playing the same game: borrowing ultra-low interest yen, exchanging it for US dollars or euros, and investing in US stocks, bonds, and real estate. The interest rate differential is a sure profit. The total scale of this play? $2 trillion.

The list of participants is absurdly long. Hedge funds are making leveraged bets and raking in profits, Japan's GPIF pension fund and insurance companies are sending vast sums overseas, retail investors like the "Mrs. Watanabe" crowd are getting involved, and even Apple and Buffett are deeply participating.

But now the party is coming to an end. Once rates are hiked, there will be a double whammy: borrowing costs will soar, and the yen will appreciate, eating up profits. What will happen to the $2 trillion in positions? Unwinding. Collective unwinding.

The consequence? High-risk assets plummet, global liquidity tightens instantly, and emerging market currencies could collapse again. In July this year, the Bank of Japan just made a minor tweak, and the Nasdaq immediately dropped 8%. The scene from 1998, when the yen appreciated by 12% and emerging markets plunged together, is still fresh in memory.

Now, the scale is even bigger, the leverage is even higher. How will risk assets like ETH perform? The Bank of Japan is caught in a dilemma: inflation pressure is there, but do they really dare to act?

Funds are already accelerating their exit. Will a black swan take flight on December 19? The whole market is waiting for the answer.