On the eve of the Fed’s December rate-setting meeting, the market suddenly went wild—Trump’s handpicked “shadow chairman” Kevin Hassett directly declared that a 25-basis-point rate cut next week is a done deal. To ensure Hassett’s rise, Trump even halted the final interview process for the Fed chair, slashing the candidate list from 10 to just 1. In public, he openly refers to Hassett as the “potential chairman,” for a simple reason: absolute loyalty, which the market recognizes as well.

On the economic data front, things aren’t helping either. November’s ADP “mini nonfarm” jobs report showed a decrease of 31,000 jobs, and the services PMI employment index has contracted for six consecutive months. With these two fires burning, the market’s odds of a December rate cut have soared to 87%, and traders are waiting for the other shoe to drop.

However, Deutsche Bank poured some cold water on the situation: the fundamentals of the US economy aren’t that bad yet, and the Fed’s hawkish faction won’t give in easily—the pace of rate cuts might be more cautious than expected.

As for the candidates, Hassett represents the dovish camp, Walsh is more concerned with inflation, Waller is relatively neutral, and Powell? His relationship with Trump has long soured, and he’s been emphasizing central bank independence.

This power game has reached its climax. Trump is determined to change leadership, Hassett’s stance is clear, and weak data seems to make a rate cut the only option—but the underlying economic strength and internal resistance haven’t been fully addressed. The market is now focused on two questions: How much will rates be cut? And how fast?

For cryptocurrencies, a rate cut means increased liquidity, and funds are likely to flow into risk assets like Bitcoin, potentially boosting prices. But if the cut is smaller or slower than expected? Disappointment could quickly turn into a selloff.