Prediction markets are painting a surprisingly cautious picture: traders are now pricing in a 51% probability that Bitcoin wraps up 2025 around the $80K mark. That shift hints at cooling confidence—bullish energy seems to be draining, replaced by growing doubt about whether we'll see fresh peaks this cycle.
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
8 Likes
Reward
8
9
Repost
Share
Comment
0/400
CryptoNomics
· 11h ago
actually, if you bothered to run a proper regression analysis on prediction market microstructure, you'd realize that 51% doesn't signal anything—that's literally just noise around the equilibrium. people confuse market sentiment with statistical significance all the time, it's kind of embarrassing honestly.
Reply0
ColdWalletGuardian
· 12-07 05:44
$80,000? Do people really believe this prediction? LOL, the prediction market is truly a gambler's paradise.
View OriginalReply0
ProposalDetective
· 12-07 01:21
Ending at 80K? Uh... this wave does feel a bit shaky. Even the prediction markets are wavering.
View OriginalReply0
WalletDetective
· 12-06 16:04
80k close? That's so conservative... Feels like the market is still a bit timid. But then again, does a 51% probability really change anything?
View OriginalReply0
WhaleShadow
· 12-06 16:04
80k? Uh... I don't think it's that pessimistic. The market just keeps tormenting people like this.
View OriginalReply0
RektButAlive
· 12-06 16:04
80K close? LOL, these guys are just too timid. In crypto, one day equals a year in the stock market—it's not an exaggeration.
View OriginalReply0
ContractHunter
· 12-06 15:50
80k to wrap up? Ha, why are these oracles so pessimistic... If the market really ends up this lousy, all we can do is laugh bitterly.
View OriginalReply0
GhostChainLoyalist
· 12-06 15:48
51% is just 80K? This should have been expected long ago. The last bull market peak was $69K, so why expect this cycle to break a million?
View OriginalReply0
LiquidityHunter
· 12-06 15:36
This 51% probability is a bit awkward. Feels like the prediction market is starting to slack off too. The 80,000 price level... is in that awkward spot of "neither losing nor getting rich," right?
Prediction markets are painting a surprisingly cautious picture: traders are now pricing in a 51% probability that Bitcoin wraps up 2025 around the $80K mark. That shift hints at cooling confidence—bullish energy seems to be draining, replaced by growing doubt about whether we'll see fresh peaks this cycle.