#比特币价格分析与预测 Seeing this analysis, I can't help but fall into deep thought. There was a time when I, too, was that "retail investor" trapped at the top. Looking at these numbers now, I feel a surge of emotions. 65% of addresses are in profit, which sounds pretty good, but we have to be wary that this figure may include "frozen" addresses. The market is currently undergoing a reshuffling of positions, with high-price positions being taken over by low-price capital—this is exactly the process where "retail investors" get harvested.

My experience tells me not to be deceived by surface-level numbers. Even if the current price is finding support at the 65th percentile, it doesn't mean it's safe. Thinking back to the last cycle, once support was broken, the market fell into a long-term downtrend. So, we must always stay vigilant and not let short-term fluctuations cloud our judgment.

For newcomers, my advice is: don’t chase highs, don’t FOMO. Observe the market closely, analyze rationally, and make cautious decisions. Remember, in this market, surviving longer is more important than making more money.