Is the Fed getting a new leader? It might happen sooner than you think.

Powell's term still has half a year left (until May 2026), but Washington has already started to get a head start. Although Trump said he would announce his pick "early next year," sharp market observers already know—the new chief is basically locked in.

Today, let’s talk about who will take over this hot potato, and what’s really going on behind the scenes.

# The Ultimate Showdown: The Battle of Two Kevins

There might be five names on the candidate list, but only two are real contenders—and both are named Kevin. In short, it’s a showdown between the "president’s confidant" and the "technocrat."

**First up: Kevin Hassett**

He is currently the head of the White House National Economic Council. On prediction market Kalshi, his odds of winning once shot up to 80%, making him the clear front-runner.

Why is he so favored?

First, he has a strong relationship with Trump. In Trump’s first term, he played a key role in the tax cut plan—he’s the type of doer who follows the president’s lead. Trump loves this kind—loyal and a staunch supporter of low interest rates.

Policy-wise? He’s a clear dove. Low rates, loose policy—these are basically his trademarks.

For the crypto market, this is a signal: if he takes the helm, dovish expectations will soar, and the liquidity narrative could have more room to run.

**Now, the second contender** (Although the original didn’t specify, logic suggests it’s also a technocrat from within the system.)

This kind of personnel battle is ultimately about policy direction. What does a dovish leader mean? Less pressure on rates, smoother valuation logic for risk assets (including bitcoin).

But don’t get too excited—the Fed chair isn’t a one-person show. Even if Hassett gets the role, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) voters still need to sign off. Real policy shifts depend on both the data and consensus.

# How Should the Market View This?

In the short term, expectations about personnel changes are a trading theme in themselves. An 80% probability is already partly priced in, but there will definitely be volatility before and after the official announcement.

In the long run, the key isn’t who sits in the chair, but the actual direction of monetary policy. A dovish chair can lower tightening expectations, but hard constraints like inflation, employment, and fiscal deficits are still there.

For crypto, this round of personnel changes proves at least one thing: the macro narrative isn’t over yet. Every Fed pivot could be the trigger for the next market cycle.

As for tokenized gold? That’s another story for another day.