#美联储重启降息步伐 Have you noticed that recently USDT is becoming less and less valuable in the OTC market?

Don’t panic. This isn’t a sign of an impending crash, but rather a retreat of the premium. Simply put—there’s a long line of people wanting to sell USDT, but buyers are sitting on the sidelines.

Why is this happening?

First, let’s look at the demand side. The market has entered a consolidation phase, and without the myth of overnight wealth to attract new retail investors, the inflow of funds buying USDT to enter the market has naturally dried up. Meanwhile, more and more people are cashing out: project teams liquidating, veteran players taking profits, retail investors leaving the space... Everyone is in a rush to convert USDT to fiat, putting huge pressure on the supply side.

Now, the channel side. OTC merchants aren’t having an easy time either—tightened regulations and soaring risk control costs mean they can only lower their buy prices to hedge against risks. With weaker buying demand, OTC prices inevitably drop. What’s more, exchange rate arbitrage used to be an option, but with those spreads essentially gone, arbitrage capital has long since left.

So, you see, the OTC price of USDT is really just a barometer of market sentiment: a soaring premium signals a bull run, stable prices mean people are watching from the sidelines, and a negative premium means retail investors are pulling out quickly.

So what should you do now?

If you’re planning to buy the dip, now is indeed a good time to swap for USDT; if you’re hoping to hoard USDT for premium gains, I’d advise you to give up on that idea—the opportunity no longer exists. Remember this golden rule: USDT is just a bridge tool, never an investment target. It naturally regains its premium in bull markets, and during bear market turbulence, it’s destined to be cheap.

Offshore prices are stable, on-chain capital flows are normal, and core systems are fine. It’s just that the market has cooled off and the premium is gone.

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