This week’s calendar is a bit scary—three key moments that could instantly flip the crypto market are all bunched together.

**Monday’s FOMC Meeting—Don’t Just Treat It as News**

The Federal Open Market Committee is meeting. The market rumor is that they might send out dovish signals—in plain terms, they might loosen monetary policy. Remember in December 2024, when they cut rates? Bitcoin immediately broke through $120,000, and altcoins rallied by 30%. But there’s a pattern here: expectations and reality often don’t match.

If the meeting suggests a rate cut is possible, liquidity expectations will drive funds into the market. If not? The market will vote with its feet. Policy makers are always ambiguous; the key is to watch for those subtle changes in wording in the post-meeting statement.

**Tuesday’s CPI Data Is the Real Test**

Inflation numbers tell you the real temperature of the economy. If CPI comes in below 3%, it means price pressures are easing, making a stronger case for rate cuts. There was a textbook example last November: within half an hour of the data release, BTC surged $5,000 and $2 billion worth of short positions were liquidated.

But here’s a detail to watch—if the price starts moving before the data comes out, it’s highly likely institutions are positioning in advance. In these cases, be wary of “sell the news” profit-taking after expectations are met; don’t let short-term spikes cloud your judgment.

**Wednesday Could Bring an Immediate Conclusion**

If the Fed actually announces a 25 basis point cut, it injects certainty into the market. Historically, every time a rate-cutting cycle starts, Bitcoin usually sees a notable rally in the following weeks. But this time there’s a variable—the stance of other global central banks. Unilateral easing and coordinated easing have completely different effects.

At the end of the day, this week is all about the tug-of-war between policy expectations and actual statements. Data speaks, but you really need to watch how the money votes.