2025-12-08 05:21:50

This round of the SOL rally looks impressive on the surface, but when you open the books and do the math, there’s a numbers game that can’t be ignored—at the same $75 billion market cap, in 2021 it supported a price of $247, but now it’s only enough for $134. What happened in between? The circulating supply ballooned from 300 million to 560 million tokens, essentially doubling the available tokens in the market over four years.

On average, the annual inflation rate exceeds 20%. This isn’t some byproduct of a technical upgrade—it’s naked supply dilution. Even worse, the unlock schedule stretches all the way to 2030, with 20%-30% more tokens to be linearly released each year for the next few years. The holdings of institutions, VCs, and early teams are like faucets that can’t be shut off.

Extrapolating at this pace: Right now, a $75 billion market cap equates to $134 per token. In a year, the circulating supply will easily surpass 700 million tokens. If the market cap doesn’t hold, the token price could be slashed in half, dropping below $90. This is a classic “market cap trap”—on the surface, total market cap rises, but the value of each token is constantly being diluted. The higher it’s pumped, the more unlocks happen; the more unlocks, the heavier the selling pressure.

Technically, things don’t look great either. The 15-minute candlestick chart occasionally climbs above the moving average, but trading volume is clearly shrinking, and the MACD on the 1-hour chart shows expanding red bars. Last night’s bullish candle looked more like a typical bull trap for dumping—funding rates briefly turned positive before quickly falling back, with the bulls unable to hold their ground.

If this logic holds, the future could look like this: in 2021, $75 billion = $247; in 2025, $75 billion = $134; in 2026, $75 billion = around $90; in 2027… it might get even worse.

Of course, the market is never one-way, but this supply dilution game with SOL is definitely something to be wary of. Behind the apparent prosperity on paper, how much is real money, and how much is just inflated numbers? That’s a question only time can answer.

SOL3.56%

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BearMarketSurvivor

· 12m ago

Real gold and silver indeed require careful inspection; everyone can play the数字游戏. Just looking at market cap is deceptive; unlocking Table 1 extended to 2030 seems a bit off. $134 is probably the cost of dilution; this wave definitely warrants caution. The term "market cap trap" has been heard quite a lot, but SOL's release amount is really outrageous. Behind the apparent prosperity on the books, it's all inflation; it wouldn't be surprising if it breaks below $90 later.

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MetaMasked

· 16h ago

This supply dilution trick will have to be paid back sooner or later. --- Why does it feel like SOL is just playing a numbers game? The market cap hasn't changed, but the price has been cut in half. --- Wait, does this mean SOL is actually depreciating? The market cap just maintains the illusion? --- Unlocks until 2030... this faucet really can't be turned off, I’m convinced. --- The price dropped from 247 to 134, that's the real market. Market cap numbers are all lies. --- Don't be fooled by the bullish-looking candlesticks—just look at the trading volume, sell signals are everywhere. --- So we're all chasing a constantly diluted coin, or am I the only one who thinks this? --- That's why I'm no longer impressed by grand narratives—the ledger is the only thing that tells the truth. --- If this pace continues, I wouldn't be surprised if SOL hits 90 next year. --- If the project team dared to say "we won't mint endlessly," SOL would have taken off long ago.

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MerkleTreeHugger

· 12-08 05:51

They're really playing some clever number games here—the circulating supply doubles and the token price gets cut in half. That's the real truth, isn't it?

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OnlyUpOnly

· 12-08 05:50

Doubling the circulating supply is really disgusting; they’re playing number games like pros.

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MechanicalMartel

· 12-08 05:46

With such heavy selling pressure, why are there still people willing to buy?

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BearMarketMonk

· 12-08 05:45

All prosperity is an illusion; time will prove everything.

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WalletInspector

· 12-08 05:36

Digital gamers, deep on-chain analysis, have seen too many illusions. --- My comment: Same old trick again: dilute tokens, hype up the price, and sell to retail investors. This SOL pump is really just a market cap illusion. Linear supply release until 2030? That's a ticking time bomb. From 247 to 134, no need to say more, that's reality. Unlock schedule stretches over five years—how can anyone hold through that? Inducing buying while selling off, and trading volume is still shrinking. I really don't get it. A drop to $90 is not a dream, it's just a matter of when. The term "market cap trap" is spot on, people really should be cautious. Everyone buying SOL now is just gambling—I really can't see through it anymore. 365 days of unlocks, 365 days of selling pressure—it's simple math.

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