#美SEC促进加密资产创新监管框架 The Fed is set to announce its December rate decision this week—have you felt the market sentiment? Polymarket data shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has soared to 93%, so it’s pretty much a done deal.

But interestingly, looking just over a month ahead, the January 28 decision looks completely different—currently, the probability of no rate cut has risen to 68%, with only a 27% chance of a cut. That’s quite a contrast, suggesting the Fed might release liquidity in December and then hit the brakes early next year to observe the market’s reaction.

For the crypto market, this December rate cut window is crucial. A rate cut means lower funding costs, and idle capital tends to seek higher-yielding assets. Mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum are usually the top choices, and in previous rate cut cycles we’ve seen clear capital inflow effects. In the short term, we might see a rebound, and market sentiment could warm up.

Of course, if there’s no rate cut in January, it’s questionable how long this rally can last. So be sure to pay attention to the timing, and don’t blindly chase the highs. $ETH