#数字货币市场洞察 **When an Earnings Surprise Meets Market Panic: A $2 Trillion Wipeout**

Thursday’s US stock market performance, in the words of Goldman Sachs partner John Flood, was “so dramatic it was breathtaking.”

Nvidia delivered an earnings report so flawless that even analysts couldn’t find fault. Logically, this should have made traders breathe a sigh of relief, right? The result was quite the opposite—they instead accelerated their defense, as if sensing something was off.

The market responded to this unease in the most direct way.

Within the first hour of trading, the S&P 500 surged 1.9%, with everyone cheering. By 1 p.m.? The mood shifted dramatically, and the index reversed into a decline. It was the wildest single-day swing since April’s round of turbulence. Even more striking, over $2 trillion in market value was wiped out, and by the close, the index had fallen below its 100-day moving average—for the first time in months. The fear gauge, the VIX? It shot above 26.

**Traders Were Completely Baffled**

How could such good news trigger a sell-off?

A variety of explanations began circulating: some said September’s mixed non-farm payroll data made people question whether the Fed would actually cut rates; others worried valuations had become unreasonably high; and technical analysts argued that algorithmic trading by short-term funds triggered a chain reaction of selling.

Flood used a vivid metaphor in his client report: “The current market is like a person covered in scars, wounded all over.” Everyone is frantically hedging against “crowded risk,” with just one goal—to protect P&L, and forget about everything else.

Goldman’s trading desk data painted an even clearer picture: there was a sudden surge in short positions across macro products. ETFs, custom baskets, futures contracts—all were being aggressively shorted.

**Signals from Historical Data**

Flood dug through historical records and found that since 1957, the S&P 500 has only seen an “opening surge of more than 1% but closing down” scenario eight times.

Here’s a lesser-known fact: after such extreme reversals, the market tends to do quite well. On average, the next day and the following week see at least a 2.3% gain, and the average one-month gain is 4.7%.

Flood’s summary was quite insightful: “These reversal events actually force investors to reassess their risk exposure. From that perspective, it’s not all bad.”

In other words, when the market stops playing by the rules, it might just be time to pause and take a good look at your own positions.