#美SEC促进加密资产创新监管框架 $BTC Now we're standing at a crossroads—will we break through $100,000, or turn back and crash toward $80,000? A lot of people are panicking. Don’t panic, let’s break it down.

First, the macro picture. If Hassett really takes over the Fed, the market will get excited for a while, but that kind of sentiment fades quickly. $BTC This rally is largely betting on a temporarily weak dollar. The problem is, expectations have a shelf life—if the price surges too fast, those expectations get priced in early and capital can reverse direction at any moment. Frankly, this momentum feels more like borrowed strength.

Technicals are even clearer:

**Resistance:** 94,000 is a tough level. Bulls and bears are wrestling here—if we can’t break through, $100,000 is just a pipe dream.

**Signal Risks:** MACD is showing a golden cross below the zero axis, but volume isn’t keeping up. This kind of rally can’t last long.

**Support levels:** If the breakout fails, watch the 87,000–88,000 range first. If that doesn’t hold, look to 84,000; below that, 80,600 is the psychological line—break that and market confidence will collapse.

What should retail investors do? Three points:

1. **Take profits at highs:** If we get near 94,000 and volume isn’t picking up, pull out first—secure your gains, don’t be greedy.
2. **Buy the dip in batches:** Don’t chase at the top. Wait for a pullback to 87,000–88,000 or 84,000 and enter in batches—lowering your average cost is key.
3. **Set stop-losses:** If you bottom fish at 84,000, set your stop-loss just below 82,000. Protecting your principal is the most important thing.

My take? $BTC The odds of a direct, explosive break above $100,000 are less than 30%. More likely scenario: we fake a move to 94,000 or higher, then quickly pull back to 87,000 or even 84,000 for a shakeout—after clearing out weak hands, the market regroups for another push. The market needs to build a base to move steadily.

Most people lose money in a bull market not because of drops, but because they get reckless and chase highs. With volatility this extreme, what you need is someone who understands the logic behind the charts and tells it like it is—not just blind hype. Remember these key levels, and don’t let your emotions take your positions for a wild ride.