#ETH走势分析 Fed's New Policy Hits: Crypto Market Faces "Liquidity Reversal" Turning Point

This week’s rate cuts and balance sheet expansion restart have revealed key market signals:

The Fed is directly injecting liquidity, in a pattern almost identical to October 2019—at that time, US stocks and Bitcoin both began a long-term bull cycle. Looking ahead to May next year, with the new administration taking office, historical trends suggest another round of large-scale liquidity injection (referencing the policy response cycle of March 2020), which could present a new window for risk release in crypto assets.

What does on-chain data reveal?

Several clear signals have been observed: the number of institutional holding addresses has reached a six-month high, indicating that large players are continuing to accumulate; stablecoin (USDT, USDC) circulation has grown about 12% month-over-month, with market trading activity rebounding; spot inventories on exchanges have dropped significantly, showing that smart money is locking in their holdings. All these are evidence of active positioning by market participants.

Short-term highlights and long-term logic:

This week, US stocks, the crypto market, and commodities are likely to rise in sync (some of which is already evident); this month could open a clearer upward channel; next year, with abundant liquidity, Bitcoin and other risk assets may reach new highs.

The core logic is actually very simple—liquidity determines the cyclical direction of the crypto market. The Fed is now sending a clear signal of easing, making this an important window period that market participants shouldn’t miss.