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Fed Meeting This Week Reveals Division—Rates Will Be Cut, But Hawkish Stance Remains

This week’s FOMC meeting revealed an interesting detail: while a rate cut is almost certain, there was an unusually rare split with five members voting against it. The underlying logic is sobering—the policy committee wants to balance easing with fighting inflation, and Powell is trying to strike a balance between two extremes.

The term "hawkish rate cut" has been everywhere lately, and it’s essentially a paradox: rates are being lowered, but the messaging remains tough. Will the easing continue in January? The official answer is maximum caution.

Bank of America’s analysis team pointed out a real issue: at the last meeting (October), it was still possible to “play tai chi” to calm expectations, but this time it’s much harder. Between the two meetings, a slew of key economic data was released, much of it delayed due to the government shutdown, which has made market guidance much more difficult.

JPMorgan’s perspective is more rooted in the labor market—once rates approach the so-called “neutral level,” whether to loosen further can’t be decided by political will; it depends on employment data. That’s a hard constraint, with no room to maneuver.

Global capital is now waiting for one signal: can Powell use his words to keep both sides’ expectations in check? The degree of division this time, in some ways, is an even greater test of the decision-makers’ communication skills than before.

The underlying mechanism is actually more worthy of attention—reshaping liquidity expectations will directly shake up the asset pricing system. This isn’t an empty prediction; it’s a logical chain laid bare by market structure. By the time everyone reacts, the capital has already been reallocated. So the real question now isn’t “Will the market rise?” but “Have you positioned yourself in advance?”