#数字货币市场洞察 $ETH $BNB $ZEC

🔥 Rate cuts ≠ end of the market rally; Powell’s next move is the real key

On the surface, it looks like a policy shift, but in reality the Fed is making a compromise forced by economic data. This Thursday at 3:30 a.m., the rate cut announcement will be released, followed by Powell’s press conference—a timing gap that’s critical.

Historically, after each rate cut, Powell has sent out hawkish signals to lay the groundwork for future policy. Right now, rates have only just fallen into the 3.5% range, inflation is still stuck above 3%, and there’s still some distance to the 2% target. Economic data hasn’t collapsed, and employment is stable, so why keep easing? The Fed’s logic has always been: stay put if you can, never act proactively.

🪙 How should the market interpret this move?

We’re likely to see a deep correction after a rebound in the near term. Aggressive traders are positioning with 2-5x shorts during the rebound, while conservative investors might as well wait it out—don’t rush to buy the dip.

The real turning point will be in the second half of next year: new government, new Fed chair, a reboot of the easing policy framework—that’s when liquidity will truly be unleashed. The chain reaction will be aggressive rate cuts and ample liquidity, paving the way for a major bull market cycle over the next 3-5 years.

In short: the coming period is a trap, next year is the wave. Don’t get dizzy from this week’s rate cut; the real test is still ahead.