#美联储重启降息步伐 The Fed's rate cut in December is already a foregone conclusion, but the market's euphoria is sowing hidden risks. On one hand, an over 80% probability of a rate cut is attracting capital inflows; on the other, long-term US Treasury yields are actually rising—in this strange divergence, what is being implied?

**The S&P 500's Ceiling Is in Sight**

The index is approaching the 6,900-point threshold, with bulls having spun the rate cut narrative several times already. The question is, once expectations are met, will profit-takers exit en masse? Whether it can break through the 6,880 to 6,900 barrier will directly determine if the next move is a surge to 6,950 or a pullback to 6,700. Many fail to realize that the most dangerous moment often comes right when the “good news” materializes.

**The Real Growth Driver May Be Overlooked**

Instead of fixating on the Fed’s meetings, it’s better to watch what’s happening with stablecoins. The scale of tokenized US Treasuries has already surpassed $7.4 billion, growing even faster than traditional stablecoins. Institutional giants like BlackRock and Fidelity have been in the game for a while. Why so aggressive? Because legal barriers have been broken—compliant stablecoins are no longer a gray area, now clearly defined as non-securities and required to have 1:1 backing with high-quality assets.

What does this mean for the US dollar? A brand-new expansion tool. Stablecoin issuers have become new buyers of US Treasuries, and the demand they create is real money. But beware—the BIS has warned that outflows could impact Treasuries even more severely than inflows do. The long-term strategy is to choose issuers with high transparency and strong compliance. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Everyone should pay attention to this shift.