The second week of December (8th-14th) will see the market face three major battles, all tied to the US economy and directly affecting capital flows. Let’s break down what these events mean for the crypto space.

**First: The Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision**
To be announced at 3:00 AM Beijing time on December 10th.

Currently, the market is pricing in nearly a 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. On the surface, this seems positive—rate cuts typically mean lower capital costs, and hot money may flow from treasuries and deposits into high-risk areas like stocks and crypto.

But here’s a pitfall: **don’t just focus on whether they cut rates—listen to what Powell says.**

If the Fed cuts rates while hinting that “there may be a pause ahead,” the market could still turn sour. This is known as a “hawkish cut”—they cut, but the stance is tough, which dampens expectations. Especially now, with considerable internal disagreement within the Fed, the voting results are also worth watching.

**My take?**
The rate cut story has already been overhyped, so a real cut might not send Bitcoin soaring. The bigger risk is the “sell the news” pressure after expectations are fulfilled—if those high-leverage bulls sense there’s no follow-through, they might dump to cut losses. Be mentally prepared for short-term volatility.

**Second: JOLTS Job Openings Data**
To be released at 10:00 PM on December 9th.

This data reflects how hot or cold the labor market is. If job openings continue to decline...

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