A major piece of news broke in the early morning—Kevin Hassett, a top contender for the next Fed chair, publicly stated his support for continued rate cuts. This statement was like dropping a depth charge into a calm lake, sending shockwaves through Wall Street.

You read that right—the major banks that were still loudly calling for a “pause on rate cuts” just days ago have overnight overturned their own forecasts. JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Nomura Securities, Standard Chartered… they’ve all changed their tune. Now, there’s near-unanimous consensus: a 25 basis point rate cut this week is all but certain.

The market reacted even faster. According to CME’s “FedWatch,” traders are now betting on an 89.6% probability of a rate cut this week. The remaining 10.4%? Probably just misclicks.

Why the sudden shift?

Just look at November’s economic data—the private sector lost 32,000 jobs, the worst single-month performance since March this year and far below expectations. With the job market weakening, even the Fed has to bow its head.

Hassett’s comments also hinted at something else: the Trump team is about to release “a lot of positive policies,” and there’s “plenty of room for the 10-year Treasury yield to fall.” The subtext? This round of policy moves could be even stronger than expected.

But the real focus isn’t just on whether rates are cut, but on three details:

1. Internal struggle: Reportedly, four hawkish officials will vote against the cut, and Governor Milan might even advocate for a direct 50 basis point cut.
2. Next year’s trajectory: Goldman Sachs expects a pause for observation first, then more cuts in March and June, with the final target range possibly pushed down to 3%-3.25%.
3. Policy language: What Powell says tomorrow will directly determine the market’s direction in the coming months.

For the crypto market, rising expectations of rate cuts usually signal easier liquidity. But don’t celebrate too soon—the key is whether the Fed will plant any landmines in its statement, such as emphasizing “data dependency” or setting a cap on the number of rate cuts next year.

In short: There’s almost no suspense about the rate cut itself—the real question is what happens after the cut.