Today, the Reserve Bank of Australia has two major events lined up, which will directly determine whether the Australian dollar can hold its ground by year-end.

First up is the interest rate decision at 11:30 AM. Will the 3.6% figure change? Keep in mind, rates have already been cut three times this year, inflation is still stuck at 3.5%, and consumer data has unexpectedly held up. Will the central bank stay the course or suddenly shift its policy? The answer will directly impact how the second half plays out.

Then at 12:30, Governor Bullock will deliver a speech. You know her style—she only speaks based on data. The 4.1% unemployment rate is stable, but core inflation remains stubbornly high. Will she hint at possible rate hikes next year? Or, on the contrary, give the market some reassurance? Every word she uses will be worth scrutinizing.

Right now, the Australian dollar has risen for 12 straight days, stuck at the 0.6650 level. On one hand, expectations of Fed rate cuts are still building; on the other, questions remain about how resilient Australia’s economy really is. After these two events, the market is likely to see dramatic swings—keep a close eye and don’t blink.