2025-12-09 03:22:04

Tonight, the world's eyes are locked on a single conference room.

Just a few hours ago, Wall Street suddenly changed its tune. The top investment banks—old faces like JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley—who were still writing "likely to maintain the status quo" in their reports just days ago, all changed their stance en masse last night. What's the market betting on for a rate cut this week? Close to 90%. That number is basically a spoiler in advance.

The turnaround happened so quickly because one signal couldn't be hidden anymore: the November private employment data collapsed, hitting the worst level in more than half a year. The economic slowdown is more apparent than expected. The Fed finally has an excuse to ease up.

But don't think it's that simple.

There are actually undercurrents inside. Word is, four hawkish committee members are preparing to vote no, while the aggressive Governor Waller even openly called for a 50-basis-point cut. Some want to hit the brakes, some want to floor the gas—this meeting won't be calm.

What really matters is next year's playbook. Goldman Sachs is already betting: cuts to continue in March and June, with the terminal rate possibly dropping all the way to around 3%. If this path comes true, that's when the "floodgates really open" in the true sense.

For the crypto market? In short: the liquidity is coming.

History is clear—every time the Fed starts a rate-cut cycle, global capital floods out like water with nowhere to go, looking for high-yield targets. Core assets like BTC and ETH are always the first to be hit. What’s more, a certain Fed official Hassett even hinted "more good news is coming," Treasury yields are loosening up... the environment is definitely changing.

Of course, beware of the old playbook: "buy the rumor, sell the news." If tonight's statement isn't dovish enough, a short-term pullback is inevitable. But looking further out, the era of monetary tightening and high pressure may really be turning a page.

No one will be sleeping tonight. Do you think this meeting will mark the start of a new cycle?

BTC-2.57%

ETH-3.4%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

13 Likes

Reward
13
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

BearMarketSurvivor

· 1h ago

Buy the rumor, sell the fact. I've fallen for this trick before, and tonight it might play out again. --- 90% probability? Ha, Wall Street’s data never seems to be accurate. --- Rate cuts are coming, liquidity is coming, but I’m more concerned about what kind of tricks these hawks can pull. --- Goldman Sachs says it will cut to 3%, but believing that just sets me up for a loss. How the meeting is expressed this time doesn't matter; what matters is whether there’s follow-up afterward. --- Another "can't sleep" night. People in the crypto world really don't have daytime. --- Instead of guessing the outcome of the meeting, it’s better to see if tonight’s market can break through. Even with great expectations, volume is necessary. --- The opening of the floodgates sounds wonderful, but I’ve long learned to cut losses in the "beautiful expectations." --- Every time they say this time is different, and then? It still falls as expected, and still gets trapped as before. --- It’s easy to say that the environment is changing, but my liquidation records are also "changing."

View OriginalReply0

MoneyBurner

· 12-09 03:52

90% chance of a rate cut? I'm going all in, betting that this time it's not a false alarm. Wait, Waller wants 50 basis points? This guy really dares to call it. What signals are on-chain data showing these past couple of days? Are whales accumulating? Only dropping to 3% would be real easing; anything said now is too early. I've fallen into too many traps buying the rumor. If the hawks win tonight, I’ll die laughing—rally up and then smash it right back down. BTC is about to take off, right? My entry point couldn't be worse, haha. Honestly, it all comes down to whether the Fed wants to save the market; the script has been written long ago.

View OriginalReply0

Rugman_Walking

· 12-09 03:51

I'm tired of hearing "the liquidity is coming." They say it every time, but what happens? It's still the same old saying: buy the rumor, sell the news. If there are hawkish comments tonight, we'll dive straight down.

View OriginalReply0

NFTRegretDiary

· 12-09 03:42

Buy the rumor, sell the news—I'm way too familiar with this trick. Got burned badly last time. --- Down to 3%? Nonsense. Once the rate cut cycle starts, it's a bottomless pit. --- Is the liquidity really coming this time, or are they just making empty promises again? --- Four hawks opposing means there are still internal disagreements. Don’t get fooled. --- BTC is about to take off, right? If it can't break the key level tonight, I'll admit defeat. --- That old fox Kashkari is basically hinting they'll keep printing money. Did you get it? --- 90% probability? Just listen and move on—the market can still dump in an instant. --- Goldman Sachs’ prediction? Heh, I never follow their trades. --- Can’t sleep, can’t sleep. Let’s see if there’s a chance to dump some bags tonight. --- Even if the rate-cut cycle comes, it doesn’t necessarily save this bear market. Don’t get too optimistic, everyone. --- Four hawks planning to oppose—this meeting room is definitely going to be heated, but in the end, they’ll still cut rates.

View OriginalReply0

ThatsNotARugPull

· 12-09 03:37

A 90% probability basically means it's already locked in. If this rate cut really happens, my BTC is going to take off. Just waiting for that 3% roadmap from Goldman Sachs to come true next year.

View OriginalReply0

Layer2Observer

· 12-09 03:22

A 90% probability for something like this—let me see the data first. Wall Street changing its tune quickly doesn’t mean the outcome is set in stone; there have been plenty of cases in history where “buy the rumor, sell the news” has backfired. Waller wants 50 basis points, the hawks want to oppose it—there are obvious disagreements here. One thing needs to be clarified: the start of a rate-cut cycle ≠ a guaranteed influx of crypto capital; it depends on the specific execution path. From an engineering perspective, the 3% interest rate assumption is too rough. Will there really be two rate cuts in the first half of next year? That still needs further verification. The increase in short-term liquidity is a fact, but don’t trade expectations as if they’re reality. An interesting finding is that the loosening in Treasury yields is indeed a signal, but the crypto market’s synchronicity is far weaker than imagined. BTC’s driving factors are much more complex.

View OriginalReply0

Trending TopicsView More
#FedRateCutPrediction
48.33K Popularity
#PostonSquaretoEarn$50
46.07K Popularity
#CryptoMarketRebound
306.82K Popularity
#SUIETFLaunched
12.44K Popularity
#BitcoinActivityPicksUp
11.47K Popularity

Hot Gate FunView More

1
DOYRDOYR
MC:$3.61KHolders:1
0.00%
2
i-in-ingi-in-ing
MC:$3.65KHolders:1
0.00%
3
ODDCONE DOLLAR DREAM COIN
MC:$3.68KHolders:2
0.04%
4
GLXGLX
MC:$3.63KHolders:1
0.00%
5
GGGate Gorila
MC:$3.63KHolders:1
0.00%

Sitemap