Bitcoin is holding at the key 0.382 Fibonacci retracement support. A clean break below would likely trigger a retest of the April lows and inflict meaningful damage to higher-timeframe structure.

Near-term upside remains capped by the upcoming Fed decision, critical jobs and inflation prints, persistently weak ETF inflows, and subdued trading volumes. Volatility compression continues to skew the immediate risk/reward to the downside.

That said, rising on-chain liveliness and clear seller exhaustion on Bitfinex indicate long-term holders are beginning to re-accumulate. These signals point to growing stabilization and set the stage for an eventual relief bounce.