Is the Bitcoin bull market just getting started? Those telling you to "HODL no matter what" might actually be drooling over your wallet.

Whenever the market fluctuates, there are always voices jumping out: "Sell now? Are you crazy? The bull market has just begun!" It sounds like concern, but is it really?

Let me give you an analogy. On a marathon track, the first to shout "Don’t stop! Victory is just ahead!" are often the runners who are running out of energy themselves and desperately need someone to keep pace and motivate them. They speak words of encouragement, but what they're really thinking is: "If you don’t stop, I can take my time to adjust my own pace."

Those so-called "standard bull market procedures"? Pullbacks are normal, consolidation is inevitable, selling now is a rookie move—these lines are really just there to numb your vigilance. If you truly believe them and weld your positions shut, congratulations, you’ve become someone else’s most stable "liquidity provider."

Even more ruthless are those flaunting their positions, claiming "no pressure at all." They sleep soundly, maybe because their entry price is lower than you can imagine, or because they’ve already cashed out most of their holdings at the top. If you blindly follow and go all-in? Your anxiety becomes the guarantee of their profits.

It’s like the swimming pool trick: the first ones to jump in splash around a bit, then call out to the people on the shore, "The water's perfect! Super comfy! Come on in!" Are they really looking out for you? No—the more people in the pool, the livelier it seems, and only then can the water level (price) be held up by everyone together. If something goes wrong, they can always climb out first by stepping on the newcomers. Your "persistence" is the best life preserver for them.

In a bull market, every public display of "faith" and "calm" hides a little scheme to get you to hold the bag. When someone tries hard to show you how relaxed they are, what you should really do is count how much ammo you have left in your own pocket.

The market is never short of stories—what it really lacks is clear-headedness.