There’s a popular theory circulating in the market lately: if the Federal Reserve gets a new chair, crypto will see an epic bull run. Sounds great, but reality might pour some cold water on this fantasy.

Let’s look at some hard data: inflation is still stuck around 3% and refuses to budge, real interest rates are already near zero, and the Fed has pretty much exhausted its easing ammunition. Even if Powell does step down one day, what tricks could the new chair possibly pull? Frankly, there’s only room for one or two token rate cuts. The market has already fully priced in any policy expectations, so hoping for a “liquidity flood” to send all coins soaring? Time to wake up.

What’s next for the market? My view is that the era of storytelling is ending, and the time for real, logic-based competition has arrived.

Bitcoin can still play the “safe-haven” card, but don’t forget its correlation with the US stock market is getting stronger. If risk sentiment turns, this correlation could catch you off guard. As for altcoins? Projects that just shout slogans and make big promises will find it harder and harder to survive. Only those with real user demand and solid technology will be able to stand firm through market cycles. As for pure narrative-driven coins—those hyped only by “halving cycles” or “rate cut expectations”—they’re basically on death row.

At this stage, the most important thing for retail investors is to change their mindset—stop chasing rumors and FOMO trading. You need to learn how to read data and understand risk management. How exactly? Here are three directions:

**Keep an eye on CPI and employment data.** These are the real indicators for Fed policy, more effective than any official speech.

**Watch the relationship between Bitcoin and US Treasury yields.** This directly reflects macro capital sentiment and is a barometer for risk assets.

**When picking projects, focus on revenue, not just the narrative.** Projects with real cash flow and a genuine user base are the true seeds that can survive a bear market.

The market is never short on hype and noise, but what’s lacking is the ability to calmly see through the surface. During policy transitions, instead of gambling on uncertain “good news,” it’s better to invest your energy in building your own analytical framework. After all, surviving and thriving in volatility has never been about luck—it’s about understanding the rules and respecting risk.