I went through some historical data and found a rather interesting phenomenon—the price of $BTC is often at a relatively high level every time long-term holders start "capitulation" selling. This pattern was especially obvious in the previous few cycles: old players sell off, exchange reserves rise accordingly, which shows that real money is being cashed out.

But this cycle looks different. Long-term holders are indeed reducing their holdings, but what's strange is that exchange reserves are actually decreasing? What does this mean? It could suggest that the real selling pressure isn’t coming from those large holders after all, but rather that the exchanges' own inventory is being depleted.

Looking at it from another angle: could it be that the old players aren't letting go at all, and instead, trading platforms, due to reduced sell pressure, are being forced to use their own reserves to maintain liquidity? If that’s the case, then the traditional logic of "long-term holders selling = market top signal" might need to be re-examined.

Right now, there are basically two possibilities:
1. This indicator has completely failed, and historical experience no longer applies;
2. The script is actually exactly the same as what happened in 2021.

Looking back at 2021, after the March 12 crash, the market was sluggish for several months and only picked up again in July. If we’re following the same path now, then maybe a bit of patience is needed? The data is right there—how to interpret it is up to each person.